Key Stats Generated Top 5 Picks At The 2023 PGA Championship

Here is some of the information bookies use to price up players for the 2023 PGA Championship.  At the end is an algorithm calculation of the top 5 picks based on the key stats needed to win at Oak Hill.  It can be very useful in betting. Note the LIV guys are absent as there's stats now for them.  Still very useful.

Note these below are not my tips.  You'll find those in the link below.

The host course this year is Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York.  The last time it hosted was 10 years ago when Jason Dufner won by two shots over Jim Furyk. Oak Hill Country Club is hosting the PGA Championship for the fourth time, having previously done so in 1980, 2003, and 2013. It also hosted three U.S. Open Championships (1956, 1968, 1989).

33 players in the field this week also played in 2013. The most notable are Adam Scott (T-5th), Dustin Johnson (T-8th), Jason Day (T-8th), Rory McIlroy (T-8th), Keegan Bradley (T-19th), Rickie Fowler (T-19th), Hideki Matsuyama (T-19th), Matt Kuchar (T-22nd), Webb Simpson (T25th), Justin Rose (T-33rd), Shane Lowry (T57th), Brooks Koepka (T-70th), Phil Mickelson (T-72nd), and Gary Woodland (74th).

Donald Ross was hired to build two golf courses at Oak Hill in the 1920's. 30 years later, Robert Trent Jones added 400 hundred yards in the 1950's and reduced the par from 72 to 70. George and Tom Fazio changed it again in the 70's.  Over the years, the one thing that Oak Hill is famous for is its trees. When Ross built the course, the land was treeless. When the PGA was played in 2013, over 34,000 trees were on the East Course of Oak Hill. In 2015 the club asked Andrew Green to bring it back to the Donald Ross original design but to suit modern golf.

Starting in 2019, many of the 34,000 trees were removed, mostly around tees and greens, to get better sun, eliminate the claustrophobic conditions, and make for better crowd movement. All of the greens, a combination of bentgrass/Poa Annua, reverted to pure bentgrass. Green was also able to add 231 yards from what the course played in the 2013 PGA Championship. The course has two par 5s, the 4th at 615 yards and the 13th at 623 yards. Both won’t be considered “lay-up” holes as birdies will be well-earned. Of the 12 par 4s, four of them are over 480 yards (6th, 9th, 17th & 18th) and just two holes (12th & 14th) are under 400 yards. The 14th is a drivable par-4, and PGA officials will allow players a chance to drive the hole. The hole is steeply uphill, with bunkers fronting the green and a newly designed short grass roll-off. The green is two-tier, and it will be challenging to hold the ball onto the top tier.

Driving will be tough, the rough is very thick.  The setup is like the 2019 PGA Championship won by Brooks Koepka. Eliminating so many of the trees in the fairway will mean that many shots into the greens will have to be gouged out of the thick fescue/Kentucky bluegrass, rye mix.

In the course played to a 72.00 scoring average. It's tougher now.  This wont be a low scoring PGA Championship.

What are we looking for in terms of stats this week? Driving accuracy plus iron play into the greens. Shotmakers, creative short game players around the green. Shit putters have no chance here with undulations and mounds on the small enough 4,500 square feet greens.  Watch out for loads of rotten five and six-footers.

Weather is set to be good.  Thursday is the coldest day at 14 degrees C but it'll be in the 20's after.  Maybe rain Saturday when the leaders tee off.

Let's compile the most important stats and see who the top five are.

1. Total Driving made up of Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy
2. Greens in Regulation, the number of greens hit from the fairway
3. Strokes Gained Around the Green. This combines all skills in getting it up and down from the short grass and the bunkers around the greens.
4. Strokes Gained Putting