June 18th – 21st, 2020

Harbour Town G.L., Hilton Head, South Carolina

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,009

Purse: $7.1 million with $1,278,000 to the winner

Defending Champion: C.T. Pan

McIlroy Thomas DeChambeau and Rahm all top the betting again this week, even though there’s a damn good reason they all avoid this event ordinarily, the course does not suit bomb and gougers. Winners like CT Pan, Satoshi Kodaira, Kuch, Donald, Furyk attest to that.  But maybe there’s some merit in what Bryson did last week at Colonial and that’s just to go for everything off the tee, cut every corner. Hogan must have been turning in this grave but it was fun to watch. 

If you want a solid each way bet this week try Justin Rose at 30/1. T3 last week, solid throughout and he’s the ultimate ball striker for the tiny greens here, back happy with TaylorMade clubs, worked hard during the lockdown, and who would disagree that Hilton Head is somewhat like Merion, the site of his US Open win?

Fits into the same style of player as those mentioned above and hence played here only once in 2013, but the 2019 US Open winner seems an all around better and more circumspect player this year.  T10 last week at Colonial is already his fifth top-10 of the truncated season.  Putted great there and I think the slimline Woodland can surprise here with a strong showing.

Winner at home in the South Africa Open in January (final round 62) and it looked like 2020 was going to be big for Branden Grace. And it still may be. Three 66’s to open last week but stumbled to a 73 for a T19 Colonial finish.  The Heritage is the site of Branden’s only PGA Tour win, in 2016, and I think based on three quarters of last week, he can contend again in 2020!!

Scanning down the odds for value this week and I see Bubba at 80/1.  Yes the bookies know that Bubba has played here only once in his career, and it shouldn’t suit him, but this is the type of player who is imaginative, clever when he needs to be, and actually sneaky good on tricky layouts.  And he’s putting much better this year. Super results at the Farmers, Phoenix, top-20 in Mexico, T7 at Colonial last week, I think Bubba is value at 80/1.

Old perma-smirk missed the cut last week after I tipped his but I better stick with at Hilton Head.  Winner in 2014 and T2 last year among six top-10’s at the event. T2 at the Genesis before the lockdown shows he can still play.

T7 in 2018 and T6 in 2019, Kevin Streelman survives on the PGA Tour by making money on weeks like this.  You don’t even bother with his formline, most of the courses on the PGA Tour are just too monstrous for him. Solo second to Nick Taylor at Pebble, another short course, in February, and he’ll be giving it everything to make a cheque this week.

I’m actually going to back my three long shots this week. Donald played well at the Honda before the break, and Furyk played super at Colonial until a 74 on Sunday.  Both have excellent records at Hilton Head,  Donald a slew of podiums, Furyk a winner in 2015.  Worth a couple of quid surely?